Sugar Export Market 2026: What I'm Watching on ICUMSA 45 and Origin Options

By Sufyan · 2026-05-12 · 4 min read

Last Tuesday a buyer in Lagos called me at 11pm asking if I could move 12,500 MT of ICUMSA 45 before the end of Q1. I don't trade sugar as my core line — rice and pulses pay my bills — but I've been watching this market closely for two years now because half my rice buyers also import sugar, and the questions kept piling up.

So I figured I'd write down what I actually see happening going into 2026. Not the glossy version.

The spec sheet buyers keep printing wrong

ICUMSA 45 is the whitest refined sugar on the commercial scale. The number refers to color — 45 IU or lower, measured the way the International Commission for Uniform Methods of Sugar Analysis says to measure it. Below 45 is technically possible but you're paying for marketing at that point, not utility.

Here's the spec sheet most buyers should be holding suppliers to:

Polarization: 99.80% minimum at 20°C
Moisture: 0.04% max
Ash content: 0.04% max
Color: 45 IU max
Granulation: fine to medium
SO2: 20 mg/kg max (some buyers want under 15 — EU especially)
Sediments: none
Magnetic particles: mg/kg basis, usually under 4
Radiation: normal background, ND on Cs-137
Crop year: current

I've seen contracts go sideways over the SO2 line more than any other number. A Saudi buyer I introduced to a Brazilian trader had a full container rejected at Jeddah last year because the SO2 came in at 22 mg/kg. The contract said 20 max. No room to argue. The lab number is the lab number.

Honestly, if you're buying ICUMSA 45 and you don't have a pre-shipment SGS or Cotecna inspection clause written in, you're gambling. I tell my rice buyers the same thing about basmati — third-party inspection isn't a luxury, it's the cheapest insurance you'll ever buy.

Origin options — and where I think 2026 actually lands

Brazil is still the giant. Roughly 45% of global raw and refined sugar exports come out of Brazilian ports, mostly Santos and Paranaguá. The 2025/26 crop estimates from CONAB came in around 44.1 million tonnes of sugar production, with ethanol mix shifting back toward sugar because the international price made it worth it. Brazilian sugar export volumes should stay strong through Q2 2026 — barring weather surprises in the Center-South.

But here's the thing — Brazil isn't the only game, and I think a lot of buyers default to Brazilian sugar export quotes without checking other origins because that's just what their broker sends them.

Quick honest rundown of what I'm seeing:

Brazil — best price-to-volume ratio, deepest liquidity, but vessel waiting times at Santos hit 18 days during peak last season. Factor that into your laycan.

India — wildcard for 2026. The export ban that's been on and off since 2023 made buyers nervous, and rightfully so. If you're planning supply that you absolutely cannot afford to lose, don't build your 2026 book around Indian sugar as the primary. As a secondary origin when policy opens up, the pricing can be excellent.

Thailand — second largest exporter most years. Cleaner logistics out of Koh Si Chang than Santos in my experience, and the quality on Thai ICUMSA 45 is consistently strong. Premium of around $15-25 per MT over Brazilian FOB, but worth it for some buyers who count vessel delays as a cost.

Pakistan — yes, we export sugar too, though it's not my core trade. Mostly into Afghanistan and Central Asia, occasionally East Africa. The government export policy shifts every year based on domestic stock, so it's not reliable as a primary origin for international buyers. I won't pretend otherwise.

Guatemala and Colombia — small but quality is high. Good for North American buyers who want shorter freight.

What I got wrong, and what I'd tell a new buyer

I used to think origin was the biggest variable in sugar pricing. It's not. Freight, timing, and FX are bigger. I watched a deal between a Dubai trader and a Kenyan importer in March 2024 where the Brazilian FOB price was lower than the Indian FOB price, but landed Mombasa cost from India came in $32/MT cheaper because of vessel availability and a stronger USD-INR window the buyer caught. The buyer who only looks at FOB is leaving real money on the table.

Look, sugar isn't rice. Margins are tighter, volumes are bigger, and the documentation chain has more places to break (Phyto, Certificate of Origin, EUR.1 if you're going EU, fumigation in some destinations, weight certificates, quality certificates, and the SGS/Cotecna report I mentioned earlier — that's seven documents minimum before your bank releases against the LC).

For 2026 specifically, three things I'd watch:

Brazilian Real movement — every 5% move in BRL/USD shifts FOB Santos meaningfully
Indian monsoon and the export policy that follows it (usually announced August-September)
EU SO2 limits — there's chatter about tightening them again, which would shift premium-grade demand

If you're a procurement manager building your sugar export 2026 book right now, my unsolicited advice — split between two origins minimum. I've seen too many buyers get locked into one supplier in one country and then watch a port strike or a policy notice wipe out their Q2.

That's how I think about it for my own rice buyers when they ask about supply security, and the logic carries over. One origin is a bet. Two origins is a business.

Anyone moving serious volume of ICUMSA 45 into Africa or the GCC next year — what's your split looking like?